000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N89W TO 6N92W MOVING W 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 
11N-15N BETWEEN 94W-99W.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WAS JUST INLAND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA N OF 
5N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 16 KT.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N86W TO 
12N94W TO 9N105W TO 8N117W TO 10N130W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
128W-132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 101W-105W.

...DISCUSSION...

A NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SW UNITED 
STATES TO A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
29N118W...THEN SW TO 25N125W AND TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
MOVING W ABOUT 17 KT NEAR 21N130W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO W OF 
17N140W AS A SHEAR AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENVELOPS 
THE LOW...AND THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 125W. THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY W DURING THE NEXT 48 
HRS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH. TO THE NW OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND TROUGH...BROAD 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERED THE AREA WITH PLENTIFUL UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE EJECTING EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE RIDGE WELL TO THE N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 
MB HIGH WAS ANALYZED W OF THE AREA  NEAR 29N145W WITH A RIDGE 
ESE TO 26N121W...THEN SE TO 18N113W. HIGH PRES COVERED THE AREA 
N OF 14N AND W OF 112W.

A NARROW MID/UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE SE OF 
THE SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND EXTENDS S TO 17N110W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 13N122W WITH A RIDGE SW TO A COL 
POINT AT 11N134W. THE SE PERIPHERY OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE W OF THE REGION EXTENDS SE TO 10N137W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH WITHIN THIS AREA IS ANALYZED FROM 12N131W TO 8N132W...AND 
IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM TO ITS E. 
SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS 
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION WAS BEING ENTRAINED NNE 
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 21N130W AND 
THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N122W. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THIS 
ANTICYCLONE NE TO NEAR 15N112W. A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDED S W 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED 
OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO SW TO 14N110W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
ALLOWING FOR STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WAS PRESENT WITHIN 
350 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 19N104W TO 16N113W TO 11N125W.

OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...MODERATE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES
WERE INDICATED BY SATELLITE WINDS TO THE S OF ABOUT 17N AND E OF
115W. A MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WAS ALONG 100W N OF 6N...AND 
WAS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE W OF THE WAVE
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVE. THE EASTERLIES WERE
ADVECTING EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE ORIGINATING FROM THE 
ITCZ CONVECTION WESTWARD TO NEAR 110W.

$$
AGUIRRE