000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080243 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUN 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W FROM 04N TO CENTRAL COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W...DRIFTING WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE AXIS FROM 05N TO 10N. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ WAS ANALYZED ALONG 08N81W 07N85W 10N105W 08N116W 10N130W 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE SUBTROPICS...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N126W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CYCLONE TO 20N130W TO 20N140W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NW OF THE TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AND STABLE AIR LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS N OF 15N W OF 125W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NW MEXICO THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 22N. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS POSITIONED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 27N101W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 13N143W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD ALONG 12N TO 105W. A PAIR OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS...ONE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR CENTERED NEAR 06S84W AND THE OTHER POSITIONED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 22N86W ARE PROVIDING FOR AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 78W-95W. THIS DIFFLUENT AREA AND BROAD RIDGING ARE RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ ALONG 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED E OF 105W ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N140W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SE TO 15N110W AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 20 KT IS CURRENTLY FOUND FROM 11N-17N W OF 128W AS INDICATED ON A RECENT 07/1750 UTC. TO THE SE OF THIS AREA A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 13N127W TO 07N133W. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW...NE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD IN THE REGION N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W-128W. AN 07/1748 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS TO 20 KT AND THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO RETAIN 20 KT WINDS N OF 30N. HOWEVER...LINGERING NW SWELL KEEP SEAS TO 8 FT. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 14N103W TO 09N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. THIS TROUGH LIES UNDER A ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N105W. A BROAD DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE ANTICYCLONE LIFTS N AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONE. OTHERWISE...MIXED CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL OF 8-9 FT COVERS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 15N E OF 123W. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DECAY GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. $$ HUFFMAN