000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072200 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUN 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W FROM 03N TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W...DRIFTING WESTWARD 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E AND 250 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 04N TO 10N. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ WAS ANALYZED ALONG 09N80W 10N105W 08N131W 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 93W...AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 109W AND 114W...AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE SUBTROPICS...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N125W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CYCLONE TO 20N133W TO 20N140W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NW OF THE TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AND STABLE AIR LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS N OF 13N W OF 125W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NW MEXICO THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 20N. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS POSITIONED OVER FAR NE MEXICO NEAR 26N101W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 14N141W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD ALONG 12N TO 105W. A PAIR OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS...ONE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 06S83W AND THE OTHER POSITIONED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N85W ARE PROVIDING FOR UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 78W-95W. THIS BROAD RIDGING IS RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED E OF 104W ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 42N135W WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N118W TO 26N121W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PRIMARILY EXTENDS THROUGH FORECAST WATERS FROM 30N130W TO 15N115W AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NE TRADES TO 20 KT ARE CURRENTLY FOUND FROM 11N-18N W OF 127W. TO THE SE OF THIS AREA A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N127W TO 06N132W. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW...NE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD IN THE REGION N OF 25N BETWEEN 119W-128W. AN 07/1748 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS TO 20 KT AND THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO RETAIN 20 KT WINDS N OF 30N. HOWEVER...LINGERING NW SWELL KEEP SEAS TO 8 FT. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 14N102W TO 08N106W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 09N TO 13N. THIS TROUGH LIES UNDER A ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N104W. A BROAD DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE ANTICYCLONE LIFTS N AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONE. OTHERWISE...MIXED CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL OF 8-9 FT COVERS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 15N E OF 125W. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DECAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. $$ HUFFMAN