000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070240
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 83W N OF 02N MOVING W AROUND 
8 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE 
WAVE FROM 03N TO 08N AND WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 04N TO 
07N. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALSO WAS FOUND 
BEHIND THE WAVE E OF 79W N OF THE ITCZ AXIS INTO EASTERN PANAMA 
AND NW COLOMBIA AS WELL AS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 
79W. CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS NEAR THE WAVE. SINCE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS 
PLENTIFUL IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE 
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N78W TO 
13N99W TO 07N112W TO 10N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 
128W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE SUBTROPICS...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS 
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N122W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM THE CYCLONE TO 22N134W TO 21N140W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS NW OF THE TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS N OF 21N W OF 
118W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL 
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW LIES OVER FAR NE 
MEXICO NEAR 26N99W.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AN 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 14N135W AND A RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD 
THROUGH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N103W AND 
CONTINUING NE TO A THIRD ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 
21N83W. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE S OF 
THE RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...THE 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES IS CENTERED 
NEAR 39N139W WITH A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF THE HIGH 
ALONG 31N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH FORECAST WATERS 
FROM 29N140W TO 26N120W TO 18N110W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO 
SLOWLY BUILD OVER W WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE TRADES TO 20 
KT ARE CURRENTLY FOUND FROM 13N-22N W OF 135W. TO THE E OF THIS 
AREA LIES A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N125W TO 03N132W AND 20 KT 
WINDS CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH N 
OF 10N. AS THE TROUGH MOVES W UNDER THE RIDGE...LOOK FOR THESE 
AREAS OF 20 KT WINDS TO MERGE.

NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD IN THE REGION N OF 24N BETWEEN 
115W-128W. THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY TRIED TO 
INCREASE WINDS ABOVE 20 KT IN NE WATERS THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT 
ASCAT AND WINDSAT HAVE CONFIRMED LIGHTER THAN PREDICTED WINDS. 
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH THE AREA 
OF NW SWELL BEGINNING TO SHRINK N BY TUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 15N100W TO 
06N107W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 07N TO 12N. THIS TROUGH LIES UNDER THE 
ANTICYLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N103W. BROADLY DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS 
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS TROUGH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS 
THE ANTICYCLONE SLOWLY LIFTS N...BUT THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
NEAR THE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME LESS PLENTIFUL.

OTHERWISE...MIXED CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL OF 8-10 FT 
COVERS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 15N 
BETWEEN 80W-120W. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DECAY ON 
MON. 

$$
SCHAUER