000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062135 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUN 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 82W N OF 03N DRIFTING TO THE W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM W OF AXIS FROM 04N TO 07N AND WITHIN 75 NM E OF AXIS N OF 05N. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND OVER SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...EASTERN COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE PANAMA COAST. CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS NEAR THE WAVE. CONSIDERING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N78W TO 11N100W TO 07N115W TO 09N126W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 97W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE SUBTROPICS...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N122W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CYCLONE TO 22N140W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NW OF THE TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS N OF 21N W OF 118W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED THE CENTRAL ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW LIES OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N100W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N135W AND A RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 12N110W CONTINUING E TO 12N108W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...THE 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 38N140W WITH A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF THE HIGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH FORECAST WATERS FROM 28N130W TO A DISSIPATING 1018 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 19N120W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER W WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SMALL AREA OF NE TRADES TO 20 KT IS CURRENTLY FOUND FROM 14N-16N W OF 135W. TO THE E OF THIS AREA LIES A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 12N125W TO 06N128W AND 20 KT WINDS CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM W OF THIS TROUGH N OF 10N. AS THE TROUGH MOVES W UNDER THE RIDGE...LOOK FOR THESE AREAS OF 20 KT WINDS TO MERGE...EXPANDING THE AREA OF NE WINDS TO THE REGION W OF THE TROUGH TO 140W. NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD IN THE REGION N OF 20N BETWEEN 120W-128W AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THAT VICINITY ON MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...THEN WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT TUE. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 13N100W TO 06N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 08N-12N. THIS TROUGH LIES UNDER A REGION OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE S SIDE OF THE ANTICYLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N108W. BROADLY DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THIS TROUGH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE ANTICYCLONE SLOWLY LIFTS NE...BUT THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NEAR THE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME LESS PLENTIFUL. OTHERWISE...MIXED CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL OF 8-10 FT COVERS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 80W-120W. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DECAY ON MON. $$ SCHAUER/LEWITSKY