000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80-81W N OF 05N DRIFTING TO THE W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE IN THE 
GULF OF PANAMA.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 07N78W TO 08N90W TO 10N100W TO 07N120W TO 
08N127W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 83W...WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 83W AND 90W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W 
AND 96W...WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 108W... 
AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 114W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 120W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 129W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE SUBTROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
27N120W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CYCLONE TO 
23N124W TO 23N136W TO 21N140W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NW 
OF THE TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS N OF 21N W OF 114W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH 
A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN 
TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AN 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N135W AND A RIDGE EXTENDING 
EASTWARD TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 12N110W 
CONTINUING E TO 15N94W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE 
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...1021 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 31N131W WITH 
A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE HIGH. A BROAD SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO NEAR 23N120W. A SMALL AREA 
OF NE TRADES TO 20 KT EXISTS FROM 14N-18N W OF 130W AND THESE 
TRADES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH 48 
HOURS. NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING DOWN N OF 20N BETWEEN 118W-129W 
AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THAT VICINITY BY 
24 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...THEN WILL QUICKLY 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS. 

TWO TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 15N96W TO 08N105W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 10N-13N...AND WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 
09N-13N. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N125W TO 05N129W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM E OF THE TROUGH S OF 07N...AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH 
FROM 07N-10N.

OTHERWISE...MIXED CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL OF 8-10 FT 
COVERS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 15N 
BETWEEN 80W-133W AND 8 FT SEAS WILL REACH TO 20N BY 24 HOURS 
THEN WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT S OF 10N BY 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY