000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051525 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUN 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W N OF 02N MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH THE WAVE. A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 12N95W TO 11N98W TO 07N110W TO 10N121W TO 10N124W TO 06N133W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 86W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS AND 90 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW-W TO NEAR 32N130W. DRY AIR IS IN PLACE N OF 20N TO 30N E OF 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS W OF THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS FROM 32N133W TO 24N140W. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF 32N140W. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS POSITIONED OVER SW LOUISIANA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO 21N101W TO 15N97W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE ITCZ TO THE N-NE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. TWO MORE ANTICYCLONES ARE OVER THE WATERS...THE WESTERN ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N136W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE NE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. SUBSIDENCE ON THE S-SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 136W. THE EASTERN ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED NEAR 13N111W. VERY DRY AIR IS NE OF THE HIGH N OF 10N AND E OF 110W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED S OF THE HIGH FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. AT THE SURFACE...1022 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N135W WITH A WEAK AND BROAD RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 17N108W. A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT TRADES IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 08N TO 11N W OF 133W AND THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 24 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS...THEN WILL INCREASE BACK TO 20 KT BY 48 HOURS AND BEYOND AS THE HIGH/RIDGE TO THE N STRENGTHENS. NW SWELL TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 28N W OF 130W...AND N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BY 48 HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY SWELL OF 8-10 FT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS S OF 11N...AND WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO THE N DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 1011 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 10.5N122W MOVING W AT 10 KT WITH A TROUGH FROM 14N121W TO 06N123W. CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES HAS DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST 3-6 HOURS WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. WINDS TO 20 KT ARE STILL PRESENT WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THIS LOW TO NEAR 10N124W BY 24 HOURS...THEN TO 10N127W BY 48 HOURS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE S-SW SIDE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NEAR 13N111W. $$ LEWITSKY