000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUN 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 78W N OF 4N...AND MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N81W 9N90W 9N100W 8N112W 10N121W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W-122W...AND 120 NM S OF OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W-106W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... THE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE N OF 20N...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES...IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE TAIL OF THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW HAS PINCHED OFF TWO UPPER LOWS...ONE NEAR 24N120W MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT...AND ANOTHER NEAR LIFTING NE NEAR 26N135W. THESE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MERGE WITH THE RESULTANT UPPER LOW FORECAST NEAR 26N124W BY LATE SUN NIGHT AND THE ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NE SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE U.S. FOUR CORNERS. THE MERGED LOW THEN DROPS SW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY...THE WESTERN UPPER LOW HAS A 50 KT WESTERLY JET TO ITS SW ALONG 12N...WHICH IS HELPING TO ADVECT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA S OF 21N AND W OF 131W. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED STABLE CONDITIONS PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THIS PORTION OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE... A 1021 MB HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N138W WITH A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 21N120W. HIGH PRES COVERED THE AREA N OF 17N AND W OF 118W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO THE N OF THE REGION AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS JUST BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN BOUNDARY THROUGH MON. NW TO N WINDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST INDUCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ENOUGH THERE TO ALLOW FOR NW WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN A NW SWELL OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W-123W. THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. ONLY A VERY SMALL POCKET OF TRADES WAS SUGGESTED BY A HIGH RESOLUTION PASS FROM VERY CLOSE TO 0600 UTC LAST NIGHT TO BE CONFINED FROM 7N-11N W OF 133W. THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24 HRS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH. HOWEVER ...TRADES THEN PICK UP AGAIN ON SUN AFTERNOON AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH PRES FORMS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER. TROPICS... UPPER LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED OVER FAR EASTERN WATERS. THIS SHEAR HAS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AS WELL AS WITH THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 8N96W. VERY DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER OBSERVED OVER SE MEXICO AND MUCH OF GUATEMALA HAS SINCE WEAKENED MARKEDLY. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS NOTED NEAR 10N112W WITH A RIDGE W TO 10N129W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS NEAR 10N137W WITH A RIDGE SW OF AREA. MODELS WERE ON CUE IN DEPICTING A 1011 MB LOW FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 120W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CONTINUE IN WESTWARD MOTION TO NEAR 10N125W IN 24 HRS...AND TO 10N127W IN 48 HRS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DOMINATED BY RIDGING. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051005 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUN 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 78W N OF 4N...AND MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N81W 9N90W 9N100W 8N112W 10N121W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W-122W...AND 120 NM S OF OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W-106W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... THE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE N OF 20N...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES...IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE TAIL OF THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW HAS PINCHED OFF TWO UPPER LOWS...ONE NEAR 24N120W MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT...AND ANOTHER NEAR LIFTING NE NEAR 26N135W. THESE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MERGE WITH THE RESULTANT UPPER LOW FORECAST NEAR 26N124W BY LATE SUN NIGHT AND THE ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NE SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE U.S. FOUR CORNERS. THE MERGED LOW THEN DROPS SW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY...THE WESTERN UPPER LOW HAS A 50 KT WESTERLY JET TO ITS SW ALONG 12N...WHICH IS HELPING TO ADVECT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA S OF 21N AND W OF 131W. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED STABLE CONDITIONS PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THIS PORTION OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE... A 1021 MB HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N138W WITH A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 21N120W. HIGH PRES COVERED THE AREA N OF 17N AND W OF 118W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO THE N OF THE REGION AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS JUST BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN BOUNDARY THROUGH MON. NW TO N WINDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST INDUCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ENOUGH THERE TO ALLOW FOR NW WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN A NW SWELL OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W-123W. THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. ONLY A VERY SMALL POCKET OF TRADES WAS SUGGESTED BY A HIGH RESOLUTION PASS FROM VERY CLOSE TO 0600 UTC LAST NIGHT TO BE CONFINED FROM 7N-11N W OF 133W. THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24 HRS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH. HOWEVER ...TRADES THEN PICK UP AGAIN ON SUN AFTERNOON AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH PRES FORMS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER. TROPICS... UPPER LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED OVER FAR EASTERN WATERS. THIS SHEAR HAS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AS WELL AS WITH THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 8N96W. VERY DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER OBSERVED OVER SE MEXICO AND MUCH OF GUATEMALA HAS SINCE WEAKENED MARKEDLY. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS NOTED NEAR 10N112W WITH A RIDGE W TO 10N129W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS NEAR 10N137W WITH A RIDGE SW OF AREA. MODELS WERE ON CUE IN DEPICTING A 1011 MB LOW FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 120W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CONTINUE IN WESTWARD MOTION TO NEAR 10N125W IN 24 HRS...AND TO 10N127W IN 48 HRS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DOMINATED BY RIDGING. $$ AGUIRRE