000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050344 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUN 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN WATERS ALONG 77W N OF 03N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 04N TO 08N...PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 07N77W TO 12N92W TO 08N112W TO 10N122W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 137W. TWO CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ THE EASTERN TROUGH WAS FROM 11N104W TO 07N105W AND HAD NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 07N TO 10N. THE WESTERN TROUGH WAS FROM 13N119W TO 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N122W TO 06N124W AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 07N TO 10N. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... THE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE N OF 20N...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES...IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE TAIL OF THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW HAS PINCHED OFF TWO UPPER LOWS...ONE NEAR 24N118W AND ANOTHER NEAR 27N136W. THESE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MERGE...WITH THE RESULTING UPPER LOW NEAR 28N123W BY SUN EVENING AND THE ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NE SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE U.S. FOUR CORNERS. CURRENTLY...THE WESTERN UPPER LOW HAS A 50 KT WESTERLY JET TO ITS SW ALONG 12N. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT JET DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR A TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ W OF THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO WATERS W OF 137W NEAR THE ITCZ AND THE UPPER JET IS TRANSPORTING CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AS THE TWO UPPER LOWS MERGE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE...1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 28N136W WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH SAT. THE HIGH WILL BE HELD SOUTH OF 30N BY A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONTS PASSING TO ITS N. NW TO N WINDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST INDUCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST HAS INCREASED WINDS TO 20 KT AND BROUGHT 8 FT NW SWELL INTO NE WATERS WHILE NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT SEAS TO 8 FT OVER NW WATERS. THE TWO SURGES OF NW SWELL WILL MERGE OVER NE WATERS SAT EVENING. MEANWHILE...TRADE WINDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 20 KT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND WILL DROP BELOW 20 KT SAT BEFORE BECOMING REINVIGORATED SUN WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY AS IT BRIEFLY MERGES WITH HIGH PRES BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT PASSING N OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. TROPICS... UPPER LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED OVER FAR EASTERN WATERS. THIS SHEAR HAS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST AS WELL AS OVER THE TROUGH FOUND FROM SOUTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 15N92W TO 08N94W. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA IN THE DIFFLUENT REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE 60-70 KT JET ON THE SE SIDE OF THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 11N104W TO 07N105W LIES WITHIN A REGION OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOSITURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N111W THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TROUGH. THE WESTERN TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOSITURE AND CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. A LOW HAS FORMED ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 10N122W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIE UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N111W. $$ SCHAUER