000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041532 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUN 04 2010 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF WESTERN MOST TROUGH IN THIRD PARAGRAPH UNDER DISCUSSION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG 13N87W TO 10N100W TO 08N109W TO 12N118W TO 08N124W TO 05N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 108W...AND ALSO BETWEEN 111W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED SW OF THE CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS NEAR 31N122W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE SW-W TO 30N132W IS LIFTING N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM 32N132W TO 26N139W WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO SW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 18N103W TO 15N108W. VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXIST FROM 17N TO 25N E OF 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED NEAR 12N111W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE E NEAR 10N101W...AND WITH A RIDGE TO THE W TO NEAR 10N124W WHERE A COL SEPARATES THIS RIDGE FROM ANOTHER THAT EXTENDS FROM WEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 05N140W TO 08N127W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS W OF 130W IS HELPING TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ITCZ. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE S-SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 127W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 12N100W TO THE NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND BROAD NE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF S AMERICA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 91W AND 97W AND N OF 10N WITHIN 240 NM OF THE COAST OF FAR SE MEXICO NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. AT THE SURFACE...1020 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 30N130W WILL DRIFT TO THE E DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE TO THE EAST N OF 30N INTO CALIFORNIA AND FAR NW MEXICO. A WEAK RIDGE EXISTS SE OF THE HIGH TO 20N116W AND ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT TRADES EXISTS FROM 09N TO 13N W OF 135W. TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER. MIXED SE-SW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH 8-10 FT SWELL REACHING 15N BY 24-48 HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N90W TO 07N94W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE TROUGH N OF 12N...AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH S OF 11N. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SW-W SHEAR ALOFT. A STRONGER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N119W TO 07N124W WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 10N...AND ALSO WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE TROUGH S OF 10N. 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT WILL PERSIST ON EITHER SIDE OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROUGH THROUGH 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AND 10N BY 24 HOURS THEN WILL WEAKEN BY 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TO THE W (INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT). $$ LEWITSKY