000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041004 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N92W 8N105W 11N118W 7N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W-110W...BETWEEN 112W-118W AND BETWEEN 121W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-95W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE JUST SW OF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS MOVING E WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE TO 30N133W LIFTING N. AS A DEEP LAYER LOW E OF THE AREA OVER NE TEXAS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK E OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...THE ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND. THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS LEFT BEHIND TWO UPPER LOWS...ONE NEAR 22N120W AND THE OTHER W OF THE AREA NEAR 23N142W. THESE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TRACK ENE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREA N OF ABOUT 19N IS PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY...STABLE CONDITIONS A JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 20N140W...AND REACHES TO 15N120W THEN ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS DUE TO THE JET ARE FORECAST TO MAXIMIZE AT 40-50 KT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT....AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL SERVE TO ADVECT MID/UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE SW SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST N EASTERN OF HONDURAS AND BROAD NE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF S AMERICA CONTINUES TO SET OFF CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 91W AND 95W...AND N OF 11N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 88W-93W. WITH A SURFACE ANALYZED IN THIS PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 12N92W TO 7N93W...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE QUITE PERSISTENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N92W. THE OTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS THE WESTERN TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THIS TROUGH LIES UNDER A REGION A LIGHT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDGED BETWEEN A ZONAL 30-40 KT WESTERLY JET TO ITS N ALONG 20N AND 20-30 KT NE WINDS PRIMARILY S OF 09N. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED NEAR THE TROUGH ON FRI...BUT LOOK FOR INCREASED WESTERLY WIND SHEAR TO APPROACH THE SYSTEM ON SAT AS THE PATTERN ALOFT TO THE N BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. AT THE SURFACE...1020 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 29N129W WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY E WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE HIGH WILL BE HELD S OF 30N BY A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONTS PASSING TO ITS N. NW TO N WINDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST INDUCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRES OVER THE SW U.S. AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST HAVE BROUGHT 8 FT NW SWELL INTO NE WATERS. 20 KT WINDS WILL SHIFT S INTO FORECAST WATERS BY FRI EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING N OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND FURTHER INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. $$ AGUIRRE