000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 81W/82W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED TO 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SW OF THE WAVE FROM 2N-4N E OF 
81W.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 6N77W 9N115W 6N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 97W-100W AND WITHIN 
150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 110W-113W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER 
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST TO 25N120W TO 24N140W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NW OF THE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
30N126W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE 
MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LIMITED 
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS NW OF THE TROUGH. 

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 13N111W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE ANTICYCLONE 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 107W-112W. ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 12N129W. A 50-60 KT 
SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 19N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND 
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS TO THE 
SOUTHERN TIP BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE RIDGE HAS 
WEAKENED AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS A RESULT THERE IS 
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT TRADES FROM 8N-17N W OF 130W AND ARE 
EXPECTED DROP BELOW THE 20 KT IN 48 HOURS.

A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS AREA ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST
EXTENDS FROM 12N95W TO 7N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE S PORTION OF THE TROUGH FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 
97W-100W. SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N116W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 9N117W TO 4N119W. WINDS TO 20 KT ARE WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE 
CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 
7N-10N.

$$
DGS