000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020248
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W/81W N OF 03N IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WAS W OF THE WAVE WITHIN 
90 NM OF COAST BETWEEN 81W AND 87W WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS SE OF THE WAVE WITHIN 60 NM OF COAST FROM 
01N TO 04N. THE WAVE LIES UNDER AN AREA OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. 

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 06N82W TO 09N100W 
TO 08N110W TO 11N117W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES 
WITHIN 150 NM N AND 45 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 114W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS 
BETWEEN 96W AND 99W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 
27N110W TO 23N140W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
CURRENTLY NEAR 30N144W TO SLIDE ALONG 30N TO 125W BY THU AFTERNOON. 
AT THE SURFACE...1026 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 28N148W WILL WEAKEN AS IT 
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO NEAR 27N132W BY THU 
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL BE HELD SOUTH OF 30N BY A COLD FRONT 
PASSING ALONG ITS NORTHERN EDGE WED AND WILL BE CHASED EASTWARD WED 
NIGHT AND THU BY THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR THE DATE LINE THAT IS 
EXPECTED TO RACE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WINDS AND SEAS 
WILL INCREASE LATE WED INTO THU OVER NE WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY PASSING N OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN 
U.S. AND THE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN ITS LOW PRES AND THE 
EASTWARD-SHIFTED SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES E.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS THROUGH ANTICYCLONES LOCATED NEAR 15N97W...13N110W...AND 
12N132W. A 60-70 KT WESTERLY UPPER JET LIES BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER N WATERS. MEANWHILE...A 25-40 
KT EASTERLY JET CAN BE FOUND IN THE AREA S OF THE RIDGE GENERALLY S 
OF 10N E OF 120W. THE HIGH WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER 
JETS HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO ALONG THE 
ITCZ. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W/81W IS 
DETAILED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. THE ONLY OTHER FOCUS 
FOR CONVECTION IS THE BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. 
THE 1400 UTC WINDSAT PASS SHOWED SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING NE TO 
SW THROUGH A CENTER NEAR 11N116W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AT 
5-10 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE AMOUNT 
OF CONVECTION AND THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.

$$
SCHAUER