000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 12N89W TO 07N107W TO 10N117W TO 09N120W TO 
06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
111W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA 
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W TO 26N128W TO 
24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N119W WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 11N140W AND NE TO 15N105W. ITCZ CONVECTION 
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE 
AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO. 
CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF 
THE JET AXIS.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N101W WITH ITCZ 
CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 96W AND 
107W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN 
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR TO NEAR 
13N95W. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA 
HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONLY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ALTHOUGH ANY 
NEW RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITH 
SATURATED CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 16N110W. 
THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH 
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE-E 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 18N W 
OF 135W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP 
TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF 
15N. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 
24-30 HOURS.

1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N118W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NE...90 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER. 
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS WITH WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THAT TIME.

$$
LEWITSKY