000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 11N90W 8N105W 9N115W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 100W-105W. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7-11N BETWEEN 116W-119W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N118W TO 27N125W 24N140W. MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS 
IS NOTED WITHIN 400 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH BROAD RIDGING AND 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 13N122W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 10N140W AND E 
TO 12N106W. A JETSTREAM WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 70-75 KT ENTERS THE AREA 
NEAR 20N140W NE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION TO 24N120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE 
LOW ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 119W. BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE 
WITHIN 360 NM SE OF THE JET FROM 140-135W AND 120 NM SE OF JET FROM 
135W-120W.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR 
TO 10N103W. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE AT THE SURFACE ARE THE REMNANTS OF 
WHAT WAS ONCE AGATHA WHICH CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 
GUATEMALA EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS. DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND 
MUDSLIDES MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SLOWLY 
DIMINISHING.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. A SMALL AREA OF NE 
TO E TRADES OF 20 KT FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 130W. THIS AREA OF 20 KT 
TRADES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. CROSS EQUATORIAL 
SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE AREA S OF 
18N W OF 110W...AND S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. 

SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 12N115W TO A 1012 MB 
LOW NEAR 9N117W TO 6N118W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLES.

$$
DGS