000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS ALONG 13N88W TO 06N106W TO 09N114W TO 07N118W TO 05N125W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
91W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN WATERS EXTENDING FROM 
32N120W SW OF THE CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS TO 28N130W TO 24N140W 
AND SW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE ISLAND OF HAWAII. VERY DRY AIR 
IS NOTED WITHIN 420 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH BROAD RIDGING AND 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N123W WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING TO 10N140W AND EASTWARD TO 13N108W. A JETSTREAM WITH 
CORE WIND SPEEDS OF 70-80 KT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 18N140W EXTENDING 
TO THE NE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 
ANTICYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 108W AND 119W. MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS UP 
AHEAD OF THE JET.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO 13N88W 
TO 10N104W. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE AT THE SURFACE ARE THE REMNANTS OF 
AGATHA WHICH CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER GUATEMALA 
AND NOW EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS AS WELL. DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING 
AND MUDSLIDES MAY RESULT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1027 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 
30N140W WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 16N116W. A SMALL 
AREA OF NE TO E TRADES OF 20 KT EXIST FROM 08N TO 21N W OF 130W AND 
THIS AREA OF 20 KT TRADES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING 
THROUGH THE WATERS S OF 20N W OF 110W...AND S OF 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 
110W. ALSO...20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 
110W WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT DURING THE NEXT 
12-24 HOURS.

1012 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 32N118W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO 
THE SW NEAR 25N122W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE TROUGH 
AND HIGH PRES TO THE W WITH 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING N OF 27N 
BETWEEN 122W AND 128W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT LINGERING NW SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY