000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA IS CENTERED INLAND OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 
15.6N 91.7W AT 0900 UTC WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 35 KT AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY INLAND OVER NORTHERN EL 
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO PRODUCING ABUNDANT HEAVY 
RAINFALL AND FLOODING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 13N89W 7N105W 9N115W 7N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 111W TO 
116W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
FROM 32N123W TO 25N133W 24N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER TO SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE 
MID AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N-30N W OF 110W. A 70-75 
KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20N140W TO 
22N125W WHERE WINDS DECREASE TO 40-50 KT. BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE 
WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE JET. SE OF THE JET IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N128W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS...WITH UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION AGATHA.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE ARE N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING 20 KT 
TRADES FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 130W. ADDITIONALLY THE PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20 KT NW TO 
N WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 13N115W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 9N118W TROUGH CONTINUES TO 5N119W. AN ISOLATED TSTM IS JUST E 
OF THE LOW. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N135W TO 7N137W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT WITH ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

ANOTHER SW SWELL TRAIN IS PROPAGATING N OVER THE AREA S OF 16N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 135W. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD N OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
DGS