000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N92.4W WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 KT AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 12N BETWEEN 89W AND 
95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W 
AND 97W. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE 
INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY 
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 10N85W TO 10N94W TO 08N100W TO 08N110W TO 10N117W TO 
06N122W TO 07N135W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
06N TO 08N BETWEEN 103W AND 110W...FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 116W AND 
120W...AND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 133W AND 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
N OF 20N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 117 AND 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 24N OVER BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO BETWEEN 105W AND 117W. THE SUBTROPICAL 
50-70 KT JET EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 18N140W ENE TO THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE DEEP TROPICS ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 10N131W WITH RIDGE FROM THE CIRCULATION 
ENE TO 14N117W. EASTERLY FLOW IS FROM EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 
117W.  

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N134W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 
20N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS 
PRODUCING 20 KT TRADES FROM 06N TO 16N W OF 130W. ADDITIONALLY THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS 
PRODUCING 20 TO 25 KT NW TO N WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. 

ANOTHER SW SWELL TRAIN IS PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST 
AREA...CURRENTLY S OF 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 135W. IT IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO SPREAD N OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
FORMOSA