000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM AGATHA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.1N93.2W WITH 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 KT AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 
1003 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 12N BETWEEN 
90W AND 96W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT 
TROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...AND IS 
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 10N93W TO 06N104W TO 09.5N117W TO  05.5N125W TO 
06.5N134W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 98W TO 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH AXIS FROM 30N133W TO 23N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE 
TROUGH N OF 23N BETWEEN 118W-130W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE SW U.S. ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 22N114W. THE 
SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 15N140W ENE TO CENTRAL 
MEXICO. WINDS OF 50 TO 70 KT PREVAIL IN THIS JET. IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 09N132W WITH RIDGE 
FROM THE CIRCULATION ENE TO 15N97W. 

SURFACE HIGH PRES 1030 MB CENTERED NEAR 35.1N133W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO 16.5N110W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND 
THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING 20 KT TRADES FROM 06N TO 16N W OF 130W. 
ADDITIONALLY THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER 
MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20 TO 25 KT NW TO N WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

ANOTHER SW SWELL IS PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY S 
OF 10N AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD N OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. 

$$
AL