000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A 
1005 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N94W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 90W-96W. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO 
PRODUCE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND 
GUATEMALA. THE CONSENSUS OF NUMEROUS TROPICAL TRACK MODELS HAS THIS 
LOW MOVING NE TOWARDS THE COAST OF GUATEMALA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR 
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL 
AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 10N95W 6N105W 9N115W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS FROM 101W-105W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH AXIS FROM 32N134W TO 25N138W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE 
TROUGH N OF 25N BETWEEN 120W-130W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA FROM 
15N-30N W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. 
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 22N118W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF 
GUATEMALA NEAR 14N88W ACROSS MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE 
LOW DESCRIBE ABOVE. IN THE DEEP TROPICS ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 10N136W WITH RIDGE FROM THE CIRCULATION
ENE TO 15N114W.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 109W. THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING 20 KT TRADES 
FROM 08N TO 16N W OF 135W. ADDITIONALLY THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20 TO 25 KT NW TO 
N WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 12N117W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
10N118W TO 5N229W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW PRES.

$$
DGS