000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290306
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WITH A BROAD 1005 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND OVER S MEXICO 
AND GUATEMALA. A 28/1616 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS WENT OVER THE LOW 
CENTER DEPICTING 20-25 KT WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS SE OF THE 
CENTER. THE CONSENSUS OF NUMEROUS TROPICAL TRACK MODELS HAS THIS LOW 
MOVING NE TOWARDS THE COAST OF GUATEMALA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR 
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL 
AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 12N87W TO 07N100W TO 09N117W TO 06N125W TO 06N140W. 
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...FROM 06N 
TO 08N BETWEEN 117W AND 120W...AND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 136W AND 
140W.  

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW SECTOR OF REGION...W OF OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. A BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE ID FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N W OF 115W WITH 
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 08N130W. ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF OUR SPECIAL FEATURE NEAR 13N88W. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE DEEP TROPICS NAMELY EQUATOR E OF 110W HAS EASTERLY 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.   

HIGH PRESSURE 1030 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 39N133W WITH SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO 23N117W. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ NEAR 
09N117W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING 20 TO 25 KT TRADES FROM 
06N TO 16N W OF 133W. ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20 KT NW TO N WINDS 
ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

$$
FORMOSA