000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282143
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WITH A BROAD 1005 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND OVER SW 
MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. A 28/1616 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS WENT OVER 
THE LOW CENTER DEPICTING 20-25 KT WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS SE OF 
THE CENTER. THE CONSENSUS OF NUMEROUS TROPICAL TRACK MODELS HAS THIS 
LOW MOVING NE TOWARDS THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE 
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 12N87W TO 07N100W TO 08N120W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W. 
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W...FROM 06N 
TO 08N BETWEEN 117W AND 120W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 133W AND 
140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW SECTOR OF REGION...W OF OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. A BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE ID FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N W OF 115W WITH 
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 08N130W. ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF OUR SPECIAL FEATURE NEAR 13N88W. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE DEEP TROPICS NAMELY EQUATOR E OF 110W HAS EASTERLY 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.   

HIGH PRESSURE 1030 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 39N133W WITH SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO 23N117W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE 
AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING 20 TO 25 KT TRADES FROM 06N TO 16N W OF 
133W. ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20 KT NW TO N WINDS ALONG THE W 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

$$
FORMOSA