000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281543
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A 
BROAD 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 12.5N95.5W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270 NM OF THE NE AND SW QUADRANT 
OF THE LOW. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE 
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO SW MEXICO. THERE 
IS A HIGH CHANCE THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR 
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 09N93W TO 05.5N106W TO 07.5N119W TO 04.5N126W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 106W TO 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM N OF AXIS AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 119W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
AND 90 NM S OF AXIS W OF 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA W OF AROUND 130W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 22N125W. 
IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 07N129W...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE TOWARD SOUTHERN 
MEXICO.

HIGH PRESSURE 1026 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 34.5N135W WITH SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 15.5N105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING 20 TO 25 KT TRADES FROM 06N 
TO 16N W OF 133W. ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20 KT NW TO N 
WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

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AL