000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITH A BROAD 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N95W NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM OVER THE SW QUADRANT OF 
THE LOW. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE 
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO SW MEXICO.
THERE IS A CHANCE THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR 
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 11N96W 7N100W 5N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 108W-115W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS FROM 131W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA W OF AROUND 130W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N118W TO 
20N125W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR 
AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N-30N W OF 
105W. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH OVER 
MEXICO EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS TO 14N101W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WITH THE SURFACE 
LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 8N129W...WITH A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 8N110W.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING A TIGHT ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT TO SUPPORT NE TO E 20-25 
KT TRADE WINDS IN AN AREA FROM 8N-17N W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20-25 
KT NW WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THE RIDGE 
WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE SOME.

$$
DGS