000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC  
CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N95W HAS 
PRODUCED ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA 
FROM NICARAGUA TO SW MEXICO. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. CONVECTION TENDS TO 
FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH CONVECTION DECREASING DURING THE 
LATE EVENING AND INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER 
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 13N87W TO 
08N100W TO 06N120W TO 07N140W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED 
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 97W AND 107W...FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 
110W AND 114W...AND FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR N PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A 50-70 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM 
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 17N140W AND CONTINUES E-NE TO BEYOND THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FROM 01N TO 20N W OF 120W. FURTHER 
E...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF MEXICO NEAR 
15N100W.  

AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH LIES NEAR 29N145W AND 
SPROUTS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FORECAST WATERS FROM 
27N140W TO NEAR 17N116W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A TIGHT ENOUGH 
PRES GRADIENT TO SUPPORT NE TO E 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS IN AN AREA 
FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SAME RIDGE 
AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT NW WINDS WITHIN 
180 NM OF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL 
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE AREA E OF 118W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND 
SPEED. 

A TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD...15-18 SECOND...CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS 
WITH DEEP WATER WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7-9 FT ARE ALONG THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO AND HAVE PUSHED N TO SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE NEAR SHORE 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS

$$
FORMOSA