000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF GUATEMALA CHARACTERIZED BY 
A BROAD 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N92W HAS PRODUCED ABUNDANT 
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO 
SOUTH BELIZE TO SW MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 86W AND 96W. THERE IS A 
MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR 
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 11N86W TO 
10N92W TO 07N100W TO 06N127W TO 08N140W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION 
MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 06N 
TO 09N BETWEEN 86W AND 96W...FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 
111W...AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 119W AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR N PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A 50-70 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM 
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 17N140W AND CONTINUES E-NE TO BEYOND THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FROM 01N TO 20N W OF 120W. FURTHER 
E...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF MEXICO NEAR 
15N100W.  

AT THE SURFACE...1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N150W HAS 
A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING A TIGHT ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT TO SUPPORT NE TO E 20-25 
KT TRADE WINDS IN AN AREA FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 125W. THE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SAME RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO IS 
PRODUCING 20-25 KT NW WINDS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE AREA E OF 
117W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH 
LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED. 

A TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD...15-18 SECOND...CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS 
WITH DEEP WATER WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7-9 FT ARE ALONG THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO AND HAVE PUSHED N TO SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE NEAR SHORE 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS

$$
FORMOSA