000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N98W AND ASSOCIATED 1006 MB SURFACE 
LOW NEAR 14N93W HAS POOLED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SW MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W. THERE IS A 
MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR 
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 11N86W TO 
06N105W TO 07N130W TO 08N140W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED 
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 06N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 97W AND 104W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 108W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
A FLAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR N PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A 70 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ENTERS 
THE AREA NEAR 17N140W AND CONTINUES E-NE TO BEYOND THE SOUTHERN 
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 08N140W TO AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 12N118W THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO 
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N100. 

AT THE SURFACE...1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30N152W HAS 
A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING A TIGHT ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT TO SUPPORT NE TO E 20-25 
KT TRADE WINDS IN AN AREA FROM 08N TO 18N W OF 125W. THE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SAME RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO IS 
PRODUCING 20-25 KT NW WINDS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE AREA E OF 
118W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH 
NO CHANGE IN WIND SPEED. 

ANOTHER TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD...17-19 SECOND...SWELLS WITH DEEP 
WATER WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7-9 FT HAS ARRIVED ALONG THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO AND WILL PUSH FURTHER N...IMPACTING 
THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. 
S TO SW WIND WAVES ON TOP OF THE EXISTING LONG PERIOD SWELL IS 
PUSHING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 12 FT TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
LOW PRES AND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER DESCRIBED AS A SPECIAL 
FEATURE ABOVE. 

$$
FORMOSA