000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 
11N89W HAS POOLED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO. PERSISTENT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR 
GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. A 2348 UTC WINDSAT PASS SHOWED 
20-25 KT INFLOW INTO THIS BROAD CIRCULATION OVER RAIN FREE AREAS
WELL TO THE S OF THE SYSTEM...AND A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION FURTHER 
WEST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY 
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS 
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND 
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 11N90W TO 09N100W TO 06N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 
97W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W 
AND 120W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY STABLE PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A FLAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH COVERING THE FAR N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF A 
LINE FROM 22N140W TO 25N120W INTO NRN MEXICO WITH A 420 NM WIDE 
RIBBON OF DRY AIR CUTTING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND 
EXTENDING SWD WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DRY AIR SITUATED JUST
TO THE N OF A 70-90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WHICH ENTERS THE 
AREA NEAR 18N140W AND CONTINUES ENE THROUGH 20N120W...THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO. THE JET IS 
ADVECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 
130W NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.   

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 12N117W TO ANOTHER CIRCULATION JUST W OF THE 
GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC NEAR 15N100W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO 
THE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 
120W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CAN ALSO BE FOUND BETWEEN THE E EDGE OF 
THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE BACK EDGE OF AN DIGGING UPPER TROUGH 
SWEEPING OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W TO JUST N OF PANAMA. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 
110W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A TIGHT ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT TO 
SUPPORT NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS IN AN AREA FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 
128W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SAME RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER 
MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT NW WINDS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE 
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN CONFINED 
TO THE AREA E OF 118W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO REACH N WATERS WITH LITTLE FANFARE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT 
WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING A NEW SURGE OF NW SWELL WITH 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8 FT IN NE WATERS WED.

ANOTHER TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD...17-19 SECOND...SWELLS WITH DEEP 
WATER WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-9 FT IS IS ABOUT TO ARRIVE ALONG THE 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO AND WILL PUSH FURTHER N AND 
IMPACT THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA WED. S TO 
SW WIND WAVES ON TOP OF THE EXISTING LONG PERIOD SWELL IS 
PUSHING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 12 FT TO THE EAST OF THE LOW 
PRES AND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER DESCRIBED ABOVE.

$$
COBB