000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251500
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 8N81W 10N90W 8N120W 8N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION N OF 8N BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 96W TO 
101W.

...DISCUSSION...
FLAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM THEN NW COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
25N130W TO 24N140W. A  70-80 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM EXTENDS 
FROM 18N140W TO 20N120W TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR IS 
WITHIN 420 NM N OF THE JET. A BAND OF THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS IS 
WITHIN 360 NM SE OF THE JET AXIS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 12N1116W TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 14N102W 
TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THEN NE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS 
IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO TO CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
S TO COSTA RICA.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 110W. THE RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING A TIGHT ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT TO SUPPORT NE TO E 20-25 
KT WINDS IN AN AREA FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 125W. THE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20-25 
KT NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE TRADES AND 
THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD DECREASE
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE FAR N 
PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND WED.

TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO 13N91W.
STRONG SW WINDS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 84W-105W.
MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF A LOW PRES OFF THE 
COAST OF EL SALVADOR BY 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE STRONGEST 
WITH WINDS TO 35 KT WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWS WINDS TO 25 
KT.

TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 6N-11N ALONG 139W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-9N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

$$
DGS