000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241516 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON MAY 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N-11N ALONG 124W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 122W AND 126W. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG 7N78W 10N100W 7N120W 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 103W-111W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 111W-117W AND WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 123W-126W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 135W-140W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 26N125W 24N140W. AN 80-85 KT JET STREAM ENTERS THE AREA AT 20N140W TO 21N120W TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS WITHIN 420 NM N OF THE JET. THE JET IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION NE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 14N105W NE ACROSS MEXICO TO E TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 103W-111W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA TO PANAMA. IN THE DEEP TROPICS ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 11N121W. SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 110W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A TIGHT ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT TO SUPPORT NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 10N-25N W OF 121W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THE RIDGE N OF 13N W OF 113W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THREE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS COSTA RICA TO 7N86W. CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE ITCZ AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. ANOTHER TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 13N104W TO 7N100W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 9N-12N. FINALLY A THIRD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N132W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 7N136W TO 4N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE LOW AND THE ITCZ FROM 135W-140W. THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. $$ DGS