000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240931 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON MAY 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 122W FROM 04N TO 11N WAS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT AS AVERAGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE LOCATION OF THE WAVE AXIS WAS CONFIRMED BY THE 0508 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED ESPECIALLY WELL DEFINED TURNING IN THE ASCAT WIND VECTORS AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ AND THE WAVE AXIS. THERE IS ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE DESCRIBED BELOW. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 09N84W TO 09N100W TO 08N110W TO 09N131W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 1150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 134W AND 138W. A TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 13N103W TO 05N101W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 11N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WITHIN 480 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 35N152W TO 30N128W THEN TO 13N110W DOMINATES THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA W OF 110W. THERE IS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING IN THE U.S. FOUR CORNERS INTO NE MEXICO. NW TO N WINDS E OF 121W TO THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACCORDING TO THE 0512 UTC ASCAT PASS WITH SHIPS ZQCP3 REPORTING 22 KT NEAR 21N116W AND DGZN REPORTING 22 KT IN 14 FT SEAS NEAR 21N109W AT 0600 UTC. THE 0028 UTC WINDSAT PASS ALSO CAPTURED 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG NORTHERN CAPE CORRIENTES. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL. THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER NE WATERS WILL SLACKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS WEAKENED BY A COLD FRONT ON ITS NE SIDE AND THE SYSTEM IN THE U.S. FOUR CORNERS IS FORCED NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL SHIFT S TOWARD THE LOW PRES LINGERING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE AND ALLOWING 20-25 KT WINDS TO LINGER NEAR CAPE CORRIENTES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE WINDS OFF THE BAJA SHRINK TO WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COAST N OF 24N. LOOK FOR NE TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ...CURRENTLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACCORDING TO THE 0210 UTC WINDSAT PASS...TO ALSO SHRINK IN AREA THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N106W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. THE DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS INDUCED BY THIS RIDGE ALOFT IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N85W TO 06N92W IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION N OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA INCLUDING OFFSHORE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF COAST. SE OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH...DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS ALOFT BETWEEN 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS S OF 06N AND 20-30 KT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AND WITHIN 240 NM SW OF THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE FROM COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA SW INTO THE PACIFIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. SW WINDS ON THE SW SIDE OF THE GYRE ARE TRANSLATING TO THE SURFACE WITH THE 0324 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT WINDS S OF 09N BETWEEN 84W AND 98W. THE GYRE AND ITS RESULTING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FARTHER W...CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 108W TO 126W IS BEING HELPED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT NEAR 14N106W TO 07N125W. THE 60-80 KT SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET LIES FROM 18N140W TO 18N130W THEN NE THROUGH MAZATLAN MEXICO. THE DIFFLUENT REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THIS UPPER JET IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 134W. CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM THE ITCZ IS BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE NE BY THIS JET. LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP WATER WAVE HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE AT 14-15 SECONDS PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THESE LONG PERIOD SWELL ARE MIXING WITH NW WIND WAVES THAT HAVE DRIVEN SEAS UP TO 14 FT. A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL HAS MOVED INTO S WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL MEXICAN AND NORTHERN ECUADORIAN COASTS BY TUE MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COAST FROM CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ SCHAUER