000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

..TROPICAL WAVES...
.TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N82W TO 11N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS N 
OF 06N.  A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL ROTATION WAS OBSERVABLE FROM 
THE NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY.  THE 06 UTC GFS MODEL SHOWS 
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WAVE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...LIKELY 
UNREALISTICALLY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM STEADY STATE.

.TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N94W TO 13N89W...SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM E AND 90 NM W OF WAVE.  WAVE IS 
SEEN IN MAXIMA OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAN IS 
ADVECTING WESTWARD SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  GFS DOES NOT PICK 
UP ON WAVE...THOUGH IT IS BETTER DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL.

.TROPICAL WAVE FROM 06N112W TO 12N109W...SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF WAVE FROM 08N TO 10N. WAVE IS 
ONLY WEAKLY DISCERNIBLE IN GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FIELDS AND 
PERHAPS A SLIGHT BULGE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY 
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 
11N92W TO 09N110W TO 07N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 101W 
AND 105W AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 119W 
AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE NE PACIFIC IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG 1034 MB HIGH JUST NW OF 
OUR REGION AT 35N148W.  THIS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME WEAKENING.  THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING 
TOWARD MODERATE NE 20 KT TRADEWINDS W OF 130W AS WELL AS 20-30 
KT NW WINDS JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SEVERAL SHIPS...A 
RARITY FOR THE AREA...REPORTED 25 TO 35 KT IN THE LATTER REGION 
AT 12 UTC THIS MORNING.  THE 34 KT GALE FORCE REPORT FROM SHIP 
3EUS AT 26N114W DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGH...SO THE HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST TOPS OFF THE WINDS CURRENTLY AT 30 KT.  NONE OF 
THE MODELS DID AN ADEQUATE JOB OF PICKING UP THESE MODERATE 
WINDS...LIKELY ENHANCED BY BAJA'S HILLY TERRAIN.  THESE WINDS 
ARE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 15 FT WITH 
TWO OF THE SHIPS REPORTING 12 AND 13 FT.  BECAUSE OF THE GFS 
UNDERANALYZING THE WINDS...THE RESULTING WAVE HEIGHTS FROM THE 
WAVEWATCHIII ARE UNDERDONE AS WELL.  THE FORECAST HOLDS THE 
WINDS AND WAVES SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH WEAKENING 
SHOWN BY MONDAY.

EARLY MONDAY MORNING...20 TO 25 KT NW SURFACE WINDS SHOULD 
COMMENCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  DUE TO 
RESOLUTION ISSUES...THESE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GFS AND 
ECMWF GUIDANCE.  THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS LESS THAN 20 KT WINDS BUT IS 
OVERSPREAD BY 8 TO 11 FT S TO SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN 
HEMISPHERE.  THESE MODERATE SWELL SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
LANDSEA