000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

..TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM FAR EPAC NEAR 03N81W NE INTO SW 
CARIBBEAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE COLOMBIAN CYCLONIC 
GYRE...INFLUENCING THE NE TO SW HORIZONTAL TILT. SELY LOW TO MID 
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TOWARD THE NW AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO 
SOME FRACTURING OF THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES 
TOWARDS THE N COAST OF HONDURAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE 
THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE DRIFTS W TO WNW.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALIGNED SW TO NE FROM 04N91W TO 12N87W....MOVING 
NW 5 TO 10 KT PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTING WAS OCCURRING FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. 

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N115W TO 11.5N109W...MOVING W AT 14 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM E OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 06N AND 10N.    

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 09N85W TO 
10N101W TO 07.5N114W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS AND SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 
127W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 34N147W DOMINATES 
THE SURFACE PATTERN N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. THERE IS A TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND TROUGHING FROM 
THE SW U.S. THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO...PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG 
NW TO N WINDS FROM OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WHERE AN 
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS FOUND...TO ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THIS STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER NE WATERS WILL BE 
MAINTAINED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE GENERAL PATTERN BECOMES LESS 
PROGRESSIVE...WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND 
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL N PACIFIC. LOOK FOR FRESH TO STRONG NE 
TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO REMAIN IN PLACE 
GENERALLY W OF 125W THROUGH SUN EVENING. A 1010 MB LOW PRES 
CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 07.5N133W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF THE 
CENTER.  

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 15N94W WITH 
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 12N107W AND NE 
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AND NEAR 
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE COLOMBIAN CYCLONIC GYRE WILL 
MAINTAIN THIS UPPER RIDGING. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 11N129W AS A RESULT OF ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH THE 
1010 MB LOW MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. 

LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL HAS REACHED MUCH OF  
THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 
IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS BEING THE W COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE NW WIND WAVES HAVE DRIVEN SEAS UP TO 8-14 
FT. A NEW PULSE OF S-SW SWELL HIT THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
THIS MORNING AND WILL DRIVE TO 9-10 FT AT 16-17 SECONDS BY SAT 
MORNING. THIS WILL GENERATE VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF ALONG 
THE COASTLINES...REEFS AND SHOALS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
PERU...MAKING FOR EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. THESE 
SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO FADE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. 

$$
AL