000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211114 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI MAY 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W N OF 02N IS MOVING W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE N OF 03N...INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 03N IS MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 04N AND ELSEWHERE W OF THE WAVE TO 92W N OF 10N...INCLUDING THE COAST OF NW COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR... GUATEMALA...AND EXTREME S MEXICO. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 09N86W. BOTH THIS WAVE AND THE WAVE TO ITS E LIE IN A REGION OF BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND WITHIN A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR THESE SLOW MOVING TROPICAL WAVES. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 11N107W TO 04N111W IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE WHICH LIES WITHIN A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N83W TO 09N93W TO 07N103W TO 09N110W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 100W AS WELL AS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 30 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 135W AND 144W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 35N143W DOMINATES THE SURFACE PATTERN N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. THERE IS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND TROUGHING FROM THE SW U.S. THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO. NW TO N WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACCORDING TO THE 0434 UTC ASCAT PASS WHILE SHIPS DGSE AND ZCBU3...BOTH NEAR 29N117W AT 0600 UTC...REPORTED WINDS CLOSER TO 30 KT. THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER NE WATERS WILL BE MAINTAINED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE GENERAL PATTERN BECOMES LESS PROGRESSIVE...WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL N PACIFIC. LOOK FOR NE TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ...CURRENTLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACCORDING TO THE 0612 UTC ASCAT PASS...TO REMAIN IN PLACE GENERALLY W OF 128W THROUGH SUN MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE INTO NORTHERN COSTA RICA. THE DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS INDUCED BY THE RIDGE ALOFT IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W. THE RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER TO 14N110W AND THEN TURNS S TO 10N120W. MEANWHILE...A 60-60 KT W-SW UPPER JET PARALLELS THE RIDGE AXIS WITH ITS JET CORE APPROXIMATELY 480 NM N OF THIS RIDGE. A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 08N130W. THIS SURFACE LOW LIES UNDER A REGION OF CONFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE STEMMING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 08N143W AND EXTENDING JUST N OF THIS LOW AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH E OF THE LOW. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 90 NM SW QUADRANT OF THIS LOW AS A RESULT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL HAS REACHED MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE NW WIND WAVES HAVE DRIVEN SEAS UP TO 8-13 FT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10 FT IN 20 SECOND SWELL TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SURGE OF SW SWELL ARRIVES...MAKING FOR DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ON SOUTH FACING BEACHES. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 8 FEET OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE SW SWELL SPREADS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. $$ SCHAUER