000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 03N MOVING W AT 10 KT...WITH 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 
04N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED FROM 04N110W TO 11N105W MOVING W AT 8 KT. 
THERE IS ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. 

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 
08.5N83W TO 05.5N93W TO 07N102W TO 07.5N108W TO 06.5N117W TO 
08N128W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1032 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 35N143W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
OF THE ITCZ ARE RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 06N TO 
20N W OF 127W. THERE IS ALSO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE 
BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND TROUGHING FROM THE SOUTHERN 
PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO RESULTING IN NW TO N WINDS ALONG 
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE STRONG 
PRES GRADIENT OVER NE WATERS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR NE TRADE WINDS TO EXPAND N BEYOND 25N 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENED PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO 
THE S.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 15N93W AND...WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 120W. MEANWHILE...A 40-60 KT W-SW 
UPPER JET RUNS PARALLEL N OF THE RIDGE. THE JET IS TRANSPORTING 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE ITCZ NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN 
MEXICO.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL HAS REACHED MUCH OF THE 
PACIFIC COASTLINE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN 
THE 5-7 FT RANGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WHERE NW WIND WAVES HAVE DRIVEN SEAS UP TO 6-9 FT. 
THIS WAVE TRAIN IS EXCEPTED TO REACH THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICAN COAST BY FRI MORNING AND WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 10 FT 
IN 20 SECOND SWELL IN THE COASTAL WATERS FRI INTO THE 
WEEKEND...MAKING FOR DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ON 
SOUTH FACING BEACHES. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 8 FEET 
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE SW 
SWELL SPREADS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

$$
AL