000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W N OF 02N MOVING W AT 10 KT.  PLENTY OF 
INCREASING DEEP STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF WAVE N OF 03N 
DUE TO  VERY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.  SIMILAR ENVIRON 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI.  NO CYCLONIC 
ORGANIZATION NOTED AT THIS TIME BUT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE WELL 
MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 03N99W TO 11N98W MOVE W AT 15 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM W OF WAVE FROM 
05N TO 11N EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT 
BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AS WAVE CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD PATH.  AIR 
MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND CONDITIONS ALOFT BECOME MARGINALLY 
ADVERSE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES THU 
CURTAILING CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 11N123W TO 06N126W MOVING W AT 15 KT.  LITTLE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AS MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR 
COMBINES WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION TO HAMPER CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT.  LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE EXPECTED WITH WAVE OVER 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N80W TO 08N97W TO 10N114W TO 06N131W TO 06N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS FROM 88W-92W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 102W 
TO 107W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS THROUGH 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 23N118W TO 14N130W MAINTAIN E 
PAC AIR MASS W OD AXIS FAIRLY DRY.  DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONE AT 
13N93W KEEPS CONSTANT FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...MOST ITCZ 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...RIDING OVER IT FLATTENED CREST EASTWARD INTO 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS 
ALONG 13N TO THE COAST AND ALONG 10N AS FAR W AS 140W.  POSITION 
KEEPS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW TO CONVECTION AND MAINTAINS WARM HUMID 
AIR MASS ALONG ITCZ ALTHOUGH IT THINS SLIGHTLY W OF 120W DUE TO 
DRY AIR INTRUSION.  MODEL GUIDANCE IMPLY SEVERAL WEAK VORTICES 
SPINNING ALONG WITH ALL THREE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVES 
...NO VORTEX IS CONSISTENT ENOUGH NOR STRONG TO INDICATE FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT INTO TROPICAL ORGANIZATION.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
COLD FRONT NOW FROM 32N140W TO 30N145W ENTERS NW CORNER OF E PAC 
TONIGHT FORCING 1023 MB HIGH PRES EASTWARD BEFORE BECOMING 
DIFFUSE FRI.  FRESH NW TO N WINDS WITHIN 180 NM OFF W COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA INCREASE TO STRONG E OF 125W AND TRADE WINDS 
FROM 08N TO 18N W OF 130W EXPAND IN COVERAGE.  ACCORDINGLY NW TO 
N SWELLS TO 12 FT ENCROACH INTO N PART OF BASIN.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL REACH MUCH OF E PAC E OF 
120W AND COASTLINE WITH HEIGHTS IN 8-10 FT RANGE BY FRI AND 
BEYOND. 

$$
WALLY BARNES