000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181603 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE MAY 18 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE FROM 02N TO 10N ALONG 88W MOVES W AT 10-15 KT. SYSTEM MOVING FROM FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT INTO A MORE ADVERSE N-NE SHEAR UNDER VERY DRY CONDITIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BUILD ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE WITHIN NEXT TWO DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 13N114W TO 04N117W DRIFTING W REMAINS IMMERSED IN MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WAVE MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MODERATE DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW CLOSE TO 120W LIKELY TO ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS. WAVE APPEARS ON IR IMAGERY TO HAVE LOST PREVIOUSLY NOTED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...BUT IT REMAINS CLOSELY MONITOR FOR ANY SIGN OF ORGANIZATION SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE TOGGLE BETWEEN A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND AN OPEN WAVE. UPCOMING SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGES GIVE A BETTER VIEW OF PRESENT STATUS. ...ITCZ... AXIS FROM 03N78W TO 07N96W TO 07N109W TO 09N118W TO 06N125W TO 06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 86W TO 115W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 123W TO 136W. ...DISCUSSION... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N116W TO 21N124W ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM 32N121W TO 25N140W. TROUGH STALLS AND FLATTENS CREST OF WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE AT 15N96W. ATTENDANT 85 KT JET CORE BECOMES ZONAL FROM 14N TO 20N ALL ACROSS BASIN. ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING ALONG 12N-13N E OF 125W WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED NE AND E INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. RIDGE PROVIDES SUFFICIENTLY GOOD OUTFLOW FOR TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 115W AS IT APPROACHES EVEN MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...THEN HELP SUFFOCATE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W WITH INCREASING N SHEAR AND DRY ENVIRON ALOFT. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1019 MB AT 24N125W PUSHED E BY DISSIPATING COLD FRONT REPLACED BY BUILDING HIGH PRES 1020 MB BEHIND COLD FRONT NEAR 31N130W. MODERATE TRADES INCREASE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLIES UNDER SECOND HIGH PRES AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO THE N AND E BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PRESENTLY DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH AS HIGH PRES MOVES E RETURN AS STRONG BREEZE BY THU UNDER BUILDING RIDGE. CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL BUILD UP TO 12 FT AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN LATITUDES W OF 90W S OF 10N. $$ WALLY BARNES