000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142136
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W FROM 02N TO 09N MOVING W AT 10 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS MAINLY
ALONG THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 06N77W TO 06N87W TO 08N100W TO 07N111W TO 
09N126W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 85W...AND ALSO BETWEEN 88W AND 
90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 122W AND 125W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS 
FROM THE SW U.S. ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 28N110W TO 
20N123W TO 15N140W. VERY DRY AIR UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED N OF THIS TROUGH.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N105W WITH A BROAD RIDGE 
EXTENDING TO THE E ALONG 10N TO COSTA RICA...AND TO THE W ALONG 
10N TO 140W. THIS RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS TO THE SE ACROSS CENTRAL 
MEXICO TO NICARAGUA. A JETSTREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WIND SPEEDS OF 
75-90 KT LIES BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THIS 
ANTICYCLONE ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 15N140W AND 
CONTINUING TO THE NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS JET IS ADVECTING MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS S OF HAWAII UP 
ALONG ITS AXIS. THE RIDGE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ. IN ADDITION A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE E PACIFIC COASTS OF COLOMBIA...COSTA RICA 
AND PANAMA.

AT THE SURFACE...1028 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 32N139W WITH 
A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 12N130W. NE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE ON 
THE SW SIDE OF THE RIDGE FROM 10N TO 21N W OF 124W. THE AERIAL 
EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TRADES WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN. NE SWELL IS COMMINGLING 
WITH SW SWELL OVER THE AREA OF TRADES AND S TO THE EQUATOR WITH 
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE 
SEA STATE WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS 
AS A SET OF LONG PERIOD SE SWELL BEGINS TO PROPAGATE N OF THE 
EQUATOR.

A 1010 MB LOW HAS FORMED NEAR 08N101W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN 
THE NW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. THE LOW IS 
UNDER THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER ANTICYCLONE WHICH WOULD BE 
FAVORABLE FOR IT TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT MOVES TO THE W AROUND 
5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 08N112W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM 03N111W TO 11N113W. CONVECTION THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THESE FEATURES HAS DISSIPATED AND THE LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO 
THE W INTO AN AREA OF DRIER AIR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR.

GAP WINDS...NE TO E WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ARE SURGING THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO DOWNWIND TO 90W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY