000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112137
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 03N77W TO 07N89W TO 05N100W TO 07N116W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W 
AND 91W...FROM 120 NM TO 300 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 
114W...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 
123W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
32N112W TO 14N122W. A THIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED 
FROM 30N107W TO 20N128W WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE N OF THE TROUGH TO 
30N. A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH TO THE SW ACROSS 
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N120W WITH UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH 
OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED NEAR 05N134W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 05N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. 
CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED ALONG AND S OF THE RIDGE UNDER 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 118W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N102W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE ITCZ UP ALONG THE NW-N 
PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. 
CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W 
AND 110W ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. 

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
ACROSS GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR AND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 13N90W AND EXTENDING FARTHER TO THE S NEAR 00N90W. VERY DRY 
AIR IS NOTED ACROSS THIS AREA EXCEPT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE 
CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE TROUGH 
AXIS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO THE NW 
OVER NICARAGUA.
 
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS AXIS MEANDERING FROM NEAR 32N136W 
TO 13N104W. NE TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT ARE SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS 
FROM 07N TO 25N W OF 120W. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING N 
OF 20N BETWEEN THE BAJA PENINSULA AND 125W. NW-NE SWELLS ARE THE 
PRIMARY SWELLS OVER THE WATERS WHERE THE TRADES AND NORTHERLY 
WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITH A SERIES OF LONG PERIOD CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. THE HIGHEST COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 12 FT ARE 
OCCURRING ALONG 10N W OF 132W. 

GAP WINDS...NE TO E WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ARE SURGING OVER THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 08N91W AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY