000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110939
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N82W TO 06N110W TO 08N118W TO 08N122W TO 04N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
84W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
06N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W TO 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEAR 
32N114W TO 25N126W. THIN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
REMAINING N OF 17N W OF 127W. THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES ADVECTING 
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO. IT ALSO SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS 
FROM THE LOS ANGELES BASIN TO 30N128W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL 
REINFORCE NW WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE AND PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD 
OF INCREASED SEAS TO 10 FT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OVER THE NE 
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 10N106W AND AIDS IN ADVECTING 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ NE TO 
CENTRAL MEXICO BETWEEN 102W AND 116W. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...NW TO N FLOW FILTERS INTO AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 92W FROM SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE 
EQUATOR.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RESULTING IN  
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE N OF 05N E OF 85W AND OVER PORTIONS OF COSTA 
RICA AND PANAMA THIS MORNING. A WEAK 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 05N80W AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS 
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION E OF 85W INCLUDING ONSHORE TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS 
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...GFS...ECMWF...AND 
UKMET...WAVER IN ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAY 3 AND 
IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE/SURFACE 
TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTERED NEAR 38N136W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ALONG 28N125W TO 
20N112W. FRESH NE TRADES ARE OBSERVED PER AN EARLIER 11/0620 UTC 
ASCAT PASS SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS FROM 07N TO 26N W OF 120W. 
ALSO...A SERIES OF SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG-PERIOD SWELLS 
BETWEEN 95W AND 130W ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO ABOUT 11 FT 
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GAP WINDS...NE TO E WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN PERSISTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
HUFFMAN