000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N79W TO 06N106W TO 09N118W TO 05N132W TO 05N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS E OF 97W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM N OF AXIS FROM 110W 
TO 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 32N117W TO 25N137W. THIN 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH AXIS N OF 20N W OF 
117W. MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF MEXICO UNTO 
TEXAS WHERE LOCAL MECHANISMS ACT ON IT FOR PRECIPITATION.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 10N106W HELPS ADVECT 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ITCZ NE ABOUT TO REACH SOUTHERN HALF OF 
MEXICO BY TUE. RIDGE MAINTAINS DRY AIR MASS UNDER ITS E HALF 
THROUGH AND BEYOND DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED FROM 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 00N92W.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST E OF TROUGH CAUSING MODERATE DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT OVER GULF OF PANAMA. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES 1007 MB AT 
04N79W INCREASES ONSHORE FLOW TOWARDS TOPOGRAPHICAL UPLIFT BEING 
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. W COAST OF COLOMBIA HIT 
HARD BY NUMEROUS DEEP CONVECTION WHICH COULD EXTEND THROUGHOUT 
TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS LOW PRES 
FORMING BUT WITH A WIDE ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS TIME... 
POSITION AND STRENGTH. AT THIS TIME...LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DRIFT 
NW TONIGHT AND TUE.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1030 MB AT 35N136W HAS 
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING TO 17N112W. FRESH NE TRADES SW OF RIDGE 
AXIS FROM 06N TO 27N W OF 120W. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING 
N OF 23N E OF RIDGE TO W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  
LARGE LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS W OF 110W. SERIES OF SOUTHERLY CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SWELLS BETWEEN 105W AND 135W ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD 
SEAS TO ABOUT 11 FT IN CONFUSED SEAS WED.

GAP WINDS...STRONG NE TO E WINDS SURGING OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES