000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 03N81W TO 06N93W TO 05N105W TO 08N116W TO 05N132W TO 
05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS E OF 93W...WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS FROM 106W TO 124W AND 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 128W.  

...DISCUSSION...
NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 32N121W TO 25N140W.   
THIN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH AXIS N OF 20N W 
OF 117W.  MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN HALF OF MEXICO 
AND TEXAS WHERE LOCAL MECHANISMS ACT ON IT FOR PRECIPITATION.    

MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 09N107W HELPS 
ADVECTING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ITCZ NE ABOUT TO REACH SOUTHERN 
HALF OF MEXICO BY TUE.  RIDGE MAINTAINS DRY AIR MASS UNDER ITS E 
HALF THROUGH AND BEYOND DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED FROM 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 00N93W.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST E OF THIS TROUGH CAUSING MODERATE 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER GULF OF PANAMA.  WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES 
1009 MB AT 04N79W ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS INCREASING 
DEEP CONVECTION E OF 85W UNTO THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS LOW PRES FORMING BUT WITH A 
WIDE ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS TIME...POSITION AND STRENGTH 
IS CONCERN.  AT THIS POINT...UNLESS LOW PRES DOES A NORTHWEST 
MOVE TOWARDS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...IT MIGHT NOT 
SURVIVE FOR LONG.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1033 MB AT 34N139W HAS 
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING TO 17N110W.  FRESH NE TRADES SW OF RIDGE 
AXIS FROM 06N TO 27N W OF 120W.  FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING 
N OF 22N E OF RIDGE TO W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  
LARGE LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS W OF 110W.  SERIES OF SOUTHERLY 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS BETWEEN 105W AND 135W ARE EXPECTED TO 
BUILD SEAS TO ABOUT 11 FT IN CONFUSED SEAS WED.  

GAP WINDS...STRONG NE TO E WINDS SURGING OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS.

$$
WALLY BARNES