000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 09N112W TO 05N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 
34N115W SW TO 28N125W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR 
CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS BY MONDAY 
AFTERNOON. A NARROW WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG 118W IS 
ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ REGION BETWEEN 
110W-125W NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND 
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND EXTENDS A RIDGE 
AXIS W-SW TO 15N140W. ASIDE FROM THE NARROW WEAKNESS PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED...MOSTLY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IS PREVAILING 
OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE SE PACIFIC...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG 96W TO THE EQUATOR. MOIST 
SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW E OF THE AXIS COUPLED WITH MODEST 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 85W THIS MORNING ALONG THE ITCZ WITH 
THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS 
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N142W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS TO 15N105W. FRESH NE TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE 
FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INCREASE TO 25 KT BY THE END 
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 11 FT. FURTHERMORE...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PINCHES UP 
AGAINST THE CALIFORNIA COAST...NW TO N WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE TO 25 KT AND THEN RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD OF 30N LATE 
WEDNESDAY...WITH SEAS REACHING 11 FT EARLY WEDNESDAY AND 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.  

GAP WINDS...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS 
OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...STRONG NE TO E 
WINDS FILTER THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS REACHING 9 
FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE END OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 10/0315 
UTC CAPTURED WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION N OF 
07N E OF 81W. AROUND THIS SAME TIME...20 KT RETRIEVALS WERE 
NOTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS AN EARLIER SURGE OF WIND 
THROUGH THE ISTHMUS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO 
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS EXPECTED BELOW 20 
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT SE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

NEW CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG-PERIOD SWELL TRAINS WILL BEGIN 
IMPACTING THE E PACIFIC LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 9 TO 11 
FT SEAS COVER S OF 07N BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING 
AS FAR N AS 14N LATE THIS WEEK.

$$
HUFFMAN