000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 05N99W TO 07N110W TO 04N126W TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 
131W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE OF 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 38N127W SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA ALONG 32N131W TO 15N140W. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
LOCATED E OF THIS TROUGH...N OF 20N E OF 128W AND CONTINUES NE 
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR IS W 
OF THE MOISTURE...ROUGHLY FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 130W-140W.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 
05N121W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 06N133W AND A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING E TO NEAR 05N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED UNDER 
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN 115W AND 140W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL 
DEBRIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FANS OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA 
S OF 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 
18N94W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EVIDENT BETWEEN THIS ANTICYCLONE AND 
THE TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 05N121W ALONG 101W...BUT IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR E OF 105W.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 101W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OFF THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN COLOMBIA TO 05N94W. MOST CONVECTION LIES 
INLAND OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A FEW 
ISOLATED MODERATE CELLS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE POINT 03N82W. 
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS CONVECTION IS A SURFACE TROUGH 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 83W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS 
APPEAR FAIRLY DRY S OF 23N BETWEEN 82W AND 105W SUPPRESSING ANY 
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES MOST OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 32N140W TO 17N105W. NE 
TRADES IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS FROM 
05N TO 26N W OF 120W. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE ARE 
OCCURRING NE OF THE RIDGE TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. OF NOTE...THE 
CARGO SHIP MAERSK KARLSKRONA CURRENTLY SAILING SE REPORTED 25 KT 
WINDS NEAR 27N120W AROUND 09/0430 UTC. THE ASSOCIATED N AND NE 
SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OVER MOST OF 
THE WATERS BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. FARTHER S...A NEW SERIES OF 
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EQUATOR BY 
EARLY TUESDAY BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.  

GAP WINDS...NE-E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR AT 
LEAST 48 HOURS SETTING UP SEAS TO 9 FT IN E-NE SWELL ALONG 10N 
TO NEAR 95W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$
HUFFMAN