000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081600 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT MAY 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS FLUCTUATES BETWEEN 05N AND 07N FROM THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING S OF 07N ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH THE CLUSTERS MOVING W TO ALONG 80W BEFORE DISSIPATING. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N105W TO 07N114W...AND ALSO OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N130W TO 20N140W. A BAND OF DEBRIS MOISTURE IS JUST E OF THIS TROUGH...ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26N134W TO 32N125W BUT CONTINUES NE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS JUST E OF THE MOISTURE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 18N140W TO 31N120W...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TODAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 06N128W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO 06N138W AND A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO NEAR 05N119W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ENHANCED UNDER THIS RIDGE BETWEEN 120W AND 143W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS FANNING OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 13N W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 17N104W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EVIDENT BETWEEN THIS ANTICYCLONE AND THE TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 06N128W...WITH ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HINTING THAT AN UPPER CYCLONE IS FORMING NEAR 14N116W...BUT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE 23N106W TO 13N120W. THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE IS JUST BEGINNING TO ERODE THE W EDGE OF THE BROAD RIDGE...AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR...THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 123W AND 93W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ENHANCED UNDER THE RIDGE ALONG 08N BETWEEN 104W AND 115W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING N TO NEAR 14N 112W WHERE IT EVAPORATES IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY AIR WITHIN THE RIDGE. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER NICARAGUA AT 14N84W...WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING SW TO ANOTHER WEAK CYCLONE NEAR 01N99W. IMMEDIATELY E...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST OF S AMERICA TO A RIDGE CREST OVER PANAMA AT 09N80W. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ENHANCED UNDER THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH THIS MORNING. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED ALONG 05N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...BUT HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER NICARAGUA OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE UPPER CYCLONE. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR DRY S OF 23N BETWEEN 106N AND 75W AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS AXIS MEANDERING FROM 32N135W TO 14N105W. NE TRADES IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS FROM 05N TO 26N W OF 120W. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE ARE OCCURRING NE OF THE RIDGE TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED N AND NE SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OVER MOST OF THE WATERS E OF 120W. FURTHER S...A NEAR SERIES OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 130W BEGGING LATE MON NIGHT. GAP WINDS...NE-E WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ARE SURGING OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS SETTING UP SEAS TO 8 FT IN ENE SWELL ALONG 10N TO NEAR 95W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ NELSON