000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 06N93W TO 09N100W TO 10N118W TO 04N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS OF EACH OF THREE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN ITCZ MENTIONED BELOW.  
ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W 
OF 137W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH W OF BASIN HAS SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
RIDING NE NEAR 28N132W.  JET CORE 65 KT ADVECTS MOIST AIR MASS 
NE UNTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT CARRIES LITTLE SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.  BROAD COMPLEX ANTICYCLONE WITH DUAL GYRES...ONE AT 
13N106W AND SECOND AT 15N92W...HAS WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE TRAPPED 
BETWEEN THEM MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER LARGE 
AREA OF BASIN S OF 25N E OF 107W.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
VORTEX OVER E COAST OF NICARAGUA HAS TROUGH EXTEND TO 00N88W 
EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF INFLOW OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO 
ITCZ.  

...AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1027 MB AT 32N137W AXIS HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 
15N104W.  FRESH NE TRADES SW OF RIDGE AXIS AND FRESH TO STRONG 
NW ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST EXPAND AND MERGE WITHIN 48 HRS AS 
RIDGE WEAKENS AND IS EVENTUALLY REPLACED BY LARGER HEALTHIER ONE 
SUN.

WEAK TROUGH THAT SURGED ALONG 125W FROM 08N-11N SHOWS NO SIGNS 
OF ORGANIZATION AND IS FIGHTING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...SO 
ITS CHANCES OF DEVELOPING ARE SMALL.  A SECOND TROUGH ALONG 115W 
FROM 09N-12N LIES UNDER UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WITH AREA 
OF DIFFLUENT WIND ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
DEEP CONVECTION.  FUTURE DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING FOR TROUGH AS 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TURNS ADVERSE WITHIN 36-48 HRS.  THIRD TROUGH 
ALONG 102W FROM 07N-11N ALSO UNDER FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DURING 
NEXT 24-48 HRS.  

MODERATE TO LARGE NE SWELLS PROPAGATING SW ARE MIXING WITH CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OVER MOST OF THE WATERS E OF 130W.   

GAP WINDS...ATLC HIGH PRES AND REBUILDING RIDGE FORCE FRESH E 
TRADES ACROSS CARIBBEAN CROSSING INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO SAT THEN 
EXPAND IN AREA AND INCREASE TO STRONG BREEZE SUN.

$$
WALLY BARNES