000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070315 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI MAY 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 08N83W TO 06N103W TO 08N113W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM N OF AXIS FROM 114W TO 120W AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS W OF 138W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 32N120W TO CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 23N135W AND CONTINUE TO 17N140W. WEAKENING 60 KT JET CORE SE OF VORTEX ADVECTS SMALL AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NE HEADED TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...BUT LACK OF ANY OTHER TRIGGER MECHANISM PREVENTS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ANTICYCLONE GYRE CENTERED AT 16N98W ANCHORED OVER MOST OF REMAINING BASIN AS VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS CURTAIL ANY DEEP CONVECTION UNDER ITS UMBRELLA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX...THIS ONE OVER NE NICARAGUA ...HAS SHARP TROUGH DIG S TO 05N88W CUTTING OFF ACCESS OF MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE... WEAK TROUGH ALONG 112W FROM 05N-14N HAS LOST ITS SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ALMOST TOO SMALL TO BE PICKED UP BY MODELS...NOTED EARLIER IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE...THEN LOST IN INFRARED... WITH ISOLATED BURST OF CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF CIRCULATION AT 10N113W. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS AS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FAVORS ITS DEVELOPMENT...BUT LIKELY RUN INTO HOSTILE SW WINDS EARLY SAT AND WEAKEN. BROAD HIGH PRES 1028 MB AT 33N136W HAS RIDGE WITH AXIS TO 15N105W. FRESH NE TRADES WINDS AROUND S AND SW PERIPHERY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH N-NW WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST EXPECTED TO SHIFT FURTHER W AS HIGH PRES DRIFT E. NE SWELLS MIXING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ALONG THE 130W LINE. GAP WINDS...MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO THU THEN PERSIST THROUGH SAT. $$ WALLY BARNES