000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 04N77W TO 02N98W TO 06N106W TO 09N116W TO 
04N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W 
OF 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 32N120W TO CYCLONIC VORTEX 
AT 23N136W AND CONTINUE TO 20N140W.  WEAK 65 KT JET CORE SE OF 
VORTEX ADVECTS SMALL AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NE HEADED TO 
BAJA CALIFORNIA...BUT LACK OF ANY OTHER TRIGGER MECHANISM 
PREVENTS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.  BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE WITH ANTICYCLONE GYRE CENTERED AT 15N97W IS ANCHORED OVER 
MOST OF REMAINING BASIN AS VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS CURTAIL 
ANY DEEP CONVECTION UNDER ITS UMBRELLA.  

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX...THIS ONE OVER NICARAGUA 
CARIBBEAN COAST...HAS SHARP TROUGH DIG S TO 01N84W CUTTING OFF 
MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO FLOW INTO ITCZ.  PREVIOUSLY 
ANALYZED TROUGH ALONG 90W HAS DISSIPATED AS DRY AIR MASS INVADE 
SE PART OF BASIN.  

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK TROUGH ALONG 109W FROM 07N-115W HAS DEVELOPED VERY SMALL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ALMOST TOO SMALL TO BE PICKED UP BY 
MODELS...BUT NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE...WITH A VERY 
SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM W OF LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 
11N109W.  CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS 
AS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FAVORS ITS DEVELOPMENT...BUT LIKELY 
RUN INTO HOSTILE SW WINDS BY SAT AND WEAKEN.  

BROAD HIGH PRES 1028 MB AT 33N139W HAS RIDGE WITH AXIS TO 
15N105W.  FRESH NE TRADES WINDS AROUND S AND SW PERIPHERY 
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD.  FRESH N-NW WINDS ALONG 
BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES DRIFT 
E.  NE SWELLS MIXING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ALONG THE 
130W LINE. 

GAP WINDS...MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT THEN PERSIST THROUGH SAT.

$$
WALLY BARNES