000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 06N100W TO 09N109W TO 04N128W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 108W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW-N PORTION OF THE BASIN 
EXTENDS FROM 32N117W TO 22N140W WITH DRY AIR UNDER SUBSIDENCE IN 
PLACE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING 
ADVECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA. A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CREST IS BEING 
FLATTENED BY A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A NEARLY DUE N-S 
AXIS CENTERED ALONG 119W. A JET CORE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND 
SPEEDS OF 90-110 KT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE N 
THEN NE UP OVER NW OLD MEXICO AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS TO THE E OVER SE MEXICO CENTERED 
NEAR 18N98W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR 11N111W WITH 
VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA N OF 12N E OF 109W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W 
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THERE TO 04N87W. MOISTURE IS 
BEING ADVECTED UP FROM THE ITCZ OVER COLOMBIA TO ACROSS PANAMA 
AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF 
THE AREA CENTERED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR 32N135W TO 15N110W. 20 KT 
TRADES ARE SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS FROM 05N TO 27N W OF 128W WITH 
ANOTHER 20 KT SWATH OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. 
MIXED NORTHERLY AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OF 8-10 FT EXISTS 
ACROSS THE AREA W OF 94W ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL 
GRADUALLY DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 48 HOURS. 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N91W TO 06N91W WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WHILE IT 
MOVES TO THE W DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ANOTHER SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N108W TO 06N109W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION OCCURRING N OF 09N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W.

...GAP WINDS...
NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO IN 24 HOURS AS TRADES INCREASE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. 
20 KT WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY