000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060323 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU MAY 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 09N90W TO 06N98W TO 09N108W TO 04N125W TO 05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 118W. ...DISCUSSION... SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NW PORTION OF BASIN EXTENDS FROM 32N123W TO 22N140W BRINGS MORE DRY AIR MASS INTO BASIN UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CREST IS FLATTENED BY SECOND TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 120W. ONLY MOISTURE PATCH NOTED RIDES 100 KT JET CORE INTO SOUTHWESTERN CONUS E OF SECOND TROUGH OVER CREST OF BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 17N99W WHICH IS DOMINANT FEATURE E OF 118W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER ANTICYCLONE KEEPS REGION WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR MASS N OF ITCZ. WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA HAS TROUGH EXTEND TO 03N82W IN E PAC EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF MOISTURE INFLUX INTO ITCZ FROM SOUTH AMERICA. EVEN SURFACE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN ITCZ...ONE ALONG 108W FROM 04N-11N AND A SECOND ALONG 90W FROM 04N-12N...ARE ABLE TO GATHER ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... BROAD BUILDING RIDGE CENTERED JUST N OF BASIN EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES FROM N OF 08N W OF 132W AND FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS 8-10 FT PRODUCED BY GALE EVENT JUST N OF 30N CROSS S INTO E PAC AND REACH 23N W OF 118W. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THU. WEAK TROUGH ALONG 108W UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITHIN NEXT TWO DAYS. TROUGH ALONG 90W HAS LOST MOST CONVECTION AND MIGHT BE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS AS DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS ALOFT CHOKED IT. NO CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION NOTED ON EITHER SYSTEM AND CONVECTION REMAINS HIGHLY CURTAILED ON BOTH. $$ WALLY BARNES